Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Fantasy Draft Recap
The Church League Fantasy Basketball League underwent some major changes this off season and I couldn't be more pleased with the new format. We went from a head-to-head points league that made weekly transactions to an 8 category rotisserie keeper league that makes daily transactions. Already two weeks into the season, I'm thoroughly enjoying the freedom of being able to utilize my entire roster instead of being at the mercy of matchups were I'm stuck with the same lineup for 7 days. Now that the days of benching superstars, due to a lack of games played in a week, is gone I'm hoping a heavy percentage of luck has been cut out of the equation and the most talented teams will be rewarded in the end. Luck is a big factor in all fantasy sports but hopefully it won't be as major
of a factor as it used to be.
And with that said, here are your 2008-09 Cousy's Cagers:
Centers
Player: Brad Miller
Drafted: 12th round, 119th overall pick
Selected over: Ray Allen, Ramon Sessions, Boris Diaw, and Nick Collison
Analysis: Brad Miller is usually a safe 6th-8th round draft pick but his 5-game suspension (for smoking the doob) and 11 million dollar contract probably made him expendable to owners with a thick moral fiber and a tight budget towards the end of the draft. His ability and propensity to shoot from 16-19 feet hurts his field goal percentage but it's hard to argue getting solid free throw percentage and high assists totals from the center position. I don't expect the world from Miller and I don't have to, he was my last pick in the draft. If I get anything in the neighborhood of 12 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists per game while shooting 80% from the line I will be ecstatic. And while some Miller owners might be turned off by the emerging games of Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson, I think their presence will allow Miller to play more efficiently. These big men should be able to play off of each other creating open looks and assist opportunities. Keep hitting the boards Brad and you and I will be just fine.
Player: Marc Gasol
Drafted: 10th round, 99th overall pick
Selected over: Richard Jefferson, Al Harrington, Brook Lopez, and Samuel Dalembert
Analysis: I don't know a lot about Marc Gasol but here is what I did know about Gasol going into the draft. For starters, he is Pau Gasol's brother so he has a pedigree to hang your hat on (if someone said he was Daniel Santiago's brother I wouldn't be as impressed). Secondly, he is one big mother! He's a 7'1'', 265 pound center that has a decent skill set. He's not a complete stiff ala Darko Milicic, but he's not as graceful as his brother Pau. What he is though, is a bruiser and the reigning Spanish League MVP. From what I had seen of him in the Olympics, I could tell he was a basketball player that could do a little of everything, he's not completely one dimensional. And when Hakim Warrick and Darko Milicic are your only competition for minutes in the front court, I'd say you'd have a decent chance of playing 30 plus minutes a night. His highlight of the season thus far is his 27 point, 16 rebound outburst against the Warriors, but in the 4 games since, he's scored double digit points only once and has yet to grab 10 or more rebounds in a single game. He's 23 years old, playing in a new league, in a new country, so hopefully he gets acclimated to his new surroundings soon and can be a double-double machine in the second half for the Cagers.
Forwards
Player: LeBron James
Drafted: 1st round, 2nd overall pick
Selected over: Kobe Bryant, Amare Stoudemire, and Dwyane Wade
Analysis: Last year I had the 2nd pick in the draft and traded down to the 7th slot in hopes of selecting Dwight Howard. The only problem was, the guy I switched draft positions with wanted to move up to the two slot to select, you guessed it, Dwight Howard. Despite having the wool pulled over my eyes, I still had the opportunity to select players like Nash, Stoudemire, Wade, or Chris Paul. But no, I decided to take Pau Gasol with my first round pick instead. Needless to say, I didn't have a great season. So with LeBron James leading the way in 2008-09, I'd say I'm light years ahead of where I was last season. LeBron is a fantasy freak show so I don't need to spend too much breath on what I think he'll do this year. But I did want to say how glad I was to have gotten the 2nd pick instead of the 1st. The owner with the 1st pick took Chris Paul and I was planning on doing the same thing up until the point I read Bill Simmons fantasy basketball preview in which he gave such a glowing recommendation for the King. In that same article Simmons said that you couldn't win your league taking Paul with the #2 overall pick (he had him ranked 4th) but later on in the same article said that the difference between Deron Williams and Chris Paul is that Williams has a chance to be one of the best point guards of his generation while Paul has a chance to be one of the best 25 players ever. In either event, it came down to whether you wanted 4 years of Chris Paul in his prime or two years of LeBron James in his prime and I'm not so sure there is a wrong choice to be had in that scenario.
Player: Danny Granger
Drafted: 3rd round, 22nd overall pick
Selected over: Caron Butler, Jason Richardson, Rudy Gay, and Carlos Boozer
Analysis: I honestly didn't think much about Granger's 2007-08 performance as it was happening. He's a player that could have been taken in the 8th or 9th round last year and everyone would have agreed that that was an OK spot to select him in, and he didn't shine so bright during the year that you stopped yourself in your tracks and told yourself, "I gotta have this guy". I drafted him two years ago and wasn't all that pleased with what I was getting, and he barely cracked the starting lineup most weeks. So when I started to notice that most publications had Granger listed as a 2nd or 3rd round pick I had to take a look at the numbers. What did he do differently last year, that he wasn't doing two years ago? I went ahead and looked at the numbers and noticed that his scoring average went from 13.9 to 19.6. That's nice. He also hauled in 105 more rebounds, dished out 52 more assists, recorded 28 more steals and 23 more blocks, and knocked down 61 more three pointers, all while raising his free throw percentage from 80 to 85%. And he did all of that while playing in two less games. Add in the fact he's making only 2 million dollars this season and that he is both guard and forward eligible, I couldn't pass up on Granger, even if he isn't keeper eligible for next year.
Player: Paul Pierce
Drafted: 4th round, 39th overall pick
Selected over: Kevin Martin, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Pau Gasol
Analysis: The only reason Paul Pierce slipped to the 4th round is because of his 18 million dollar price tag. On talent alone, Pierce proved in the playoffs last year that he could go toe-to-toe with the Kobe's and LeBron's of the world and even out perform them at times. He's usually a rock solid 2nd round or early 3rd round pick and for him to nearly slip into the 4th round was an absolute travesty. He's proved that he is the go-to-guy of the big three and with James Posey out of the picture, I think Pierce might be on the floor a bit more during the regular season. Plus, I think the East as a whole has gotten better and the Celtics shouldn't be able to blow out opponents as easily and with as much regularity as last year. And on a side note, if you didn't tear up (or at least get a quiver lip) during the Celtics championship ring ceremony on opening night, then there's a dark place awaiting your soul. And I agree, the Celtics are not my home team so I have no reason to be emotionally invested with their franchise, but come on. There's no way you could watch that ceremony knowing how much failure those three guys went through to get to that point.....and with the Forest Gump overture playing in the background.....and when the tears started rolling down Pierce's face........that's enough to....... let's just move on.
Player: David Lee
Drafted: 6th round, 59th overall pick
Selected over: Tony Parker, Stephen Jackson, and O.J. Mayo
Analysis: Now that we are two weeks into the season, it is coming to my attention that perhaps Parker, Jackson, or Mayo would have been a better selection. I had no idea Ginobili's absence would have vaulted Parker to such heights. I've also never coveted Parker from a fantasy perspective since he's been in the league so I don't feel as guilty passing on him. Mayo was an unproven entity in the NBA and was slated to go later than the 6th or 7th round (when you draft Mayo that early, you're banking on him being one of your starters and not too many people would have been willing to do that before the season) so I don't regret passing him with the 59th pick. But I had Stephen Jackson ranked as a 5th round talent (49th overall) and I had Lee ranked 70th overall, so I'm not sure why I went with Lee. I guess up to that point in the draft, I still didn't have a pure power forward/center type that could haul in tons of rebounds, so I probably drafted for a category need there. And with Eddy Curry out of the picture (in terms of the starting lineup) and with Mike D'Antoni's run and gun system where anything can happen, I got caught up in grand illusions of Lee playing 37-39 minutes a night, pulling in 12 rebounds on the daily, and him becoming the greatest caucasian thing to happen to basketball since Mark Madsen's post championship celebration dances with the Lakers. So far, Lee is playing less than 30 minutes a game, complaining about born spurs in his ankle, and averaging 6 rebounds a game. If things don't change soon, I probably could switch Mr. Madsen into my lineup and no one would be the wiser. Bad times.
Player: Thaddeus Young
Drafted: 8th round, 79th overall pick
Selected over: Luol Deng, Jeff Green, and T.J. Ford
Analysis: I have been enamored with the Georgia Tech product for as long as I've known of him. Josh Smith had been on my fantasy teams for about 3 of the last 5 years and with his stock ever rising, it's harder and harder to get a hold of him in drafts. So when Thaddeus Young came into my life last season I found my new fantasy heart throb so to speak. Coming out of college, I was under the impression that Young was a very raw player who had good size and loads of athleticism, but needed work on his shot. But as it turns out, even though both Young and Smith are left handed, Thaddeus can actually stroke the ball from long distance. He may not be able to steal and block shots at the rate that Smith does, but all and all I think I have an excellent player on my hands. And this is one of the rare occasions where I didn't reach to draft a guy I really, really wanted. It feels like I got him just at the right point of the draft.
Guards
Player: Kevin Durant
Drafted: 2nd round, 19th overall pick
Selected over: Andre Iguodala, David West, Chris Bosh, and Jose Calderon
Analysis: For all intents and purposes, Kevin Durant was supposed to be a 4th round pick this year. But since this is a keeper league, I couldn't pass up the opportunity to own Durant for at least two seasons. Had Joe Johnson or Carmelo Anthony still been around I would have gone with either of those guys, but Durant is a nice consolation prize. If I didn't take him with my 2nd or 3rd round pick, he wouldn't have been around at the 39th slot in the draft. I enjoy the fact that he has guard eligibility but P.J. Carlesimo needs to play him more at small forward. If Chris Bosh could handle himself playing the 4 with Toronto as a rookie, then I think Durant could handle being at the 3. His numbers from last year don't exactly scream out 2nd round value (20.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists) but the vast unknown of what he might become is worth the gamble, to me anyways. When he goes out like he did on Monday and drops 37 points, 8 boards, 3 blocks, 9-9 from the line, 2 threes, and 2 assists, you can't help but get warm fuzzies in your tummies. I'm hoping he makes a Rudy Guy type leap in this his 2nd season in the pros and makes me look good for taking him. The only thing that could possibly stop him are those ugly ass jerseys the Thunder are sporting this year. They remind me of a blander version of the jerseys the Pistons wore in the mid to late 90's, and those jerseys were gawd awful. I miss the Sonics already.
Player: Devin Harris
Drafted: 5th round, 42nd overall pick
Selected over: Yao Ming, Raymond Felton, and Rajon Rondo
Analysis: At this point in the draft, I had LeBron, Durant, Granger, and Pierce, 4 all purpose forwards that can give you a little of everything. I either wanted a point guard or an actual post player that would give me a high FG% and rebounds. In the 5th round, you really can't go wrong with Yao. He's an annual 2nd or 3rd round pick that gives you 1st round production when he's healthy. The only problem is, he's almost never healthy. A healthy Yao would probably have guaranteed my team a top three finish, but I just couldn't handle the risk. Plus, watching Yao labor up and down the court isn't even fun. Now on the other hand, Wisconsin native Devin Harris should be loads of fun to watch as he motors up and down the floor handling the ball for a crappy Nets team. I was under the impression that Harris would be good for 17 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists all of which would be career highs. So far, he's posting 18.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. Thus far, the assist totals and minutes played (32.8 a game) are a cause for concern, but hopefully those numbers trend upward as the season progresses.
Player: Chauncey Billups
Drafted: 7th round, 62nd overall pick
Selected over: Marcus Camby, John Salmons, Mike Dunleavy, and Michael Redd
Analysis: If Pierce slipping to the back end of the 4th round was a travesty then consider Billups slippage into 7th round territory a crime against humanity. I realize he's 32-years-old and that Rodney Stuckey was waiting in the wings to vulture some of his minutes, but he is still a top notch point guard in the league. He's a lock for 7 assists a game, nearly 90% from the stripe, a steal a game, and he'll finish in the top 30 for 3-pointers made in a season. And this was the Detroit Pistons version of Chauncey Billups. The Denver version should maintain the high water marks in assists, steals, free throws, and three's and then maybe see an increase in rebounds and points given the high tempo brand of play of the Nuggets. This guy has been drafted as a 3rd or 4th round talent for the last 4 or 5 years so hopefully the drop in production that the other owners were predicting never comes to pass. The Cagers love this pick, especially when Tayshaun Prince (7th round) and Rip Hamilton (9th round) were taken in such close proximity to Mr. Big Shot, which is something that never should have happened.
Player: Mike Miller
Drafted: 9th round, 82 overall pick
Selected over: Corey Maggette, Richard Hamilton, and Zach Randolph
Analysis: I hate to keep beating this drum but Mike Miller was tabbed as a 6th or 7th rounder before the draft and I ended up with him in the 9th round. Last season he averaged 16.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists for a crappy Grizzlies squad that had no inside presence. He now plays for a crappy team in Minnesota with Al Jefferson creating double teams on the blocks, so there should be an ample amount of open looks for the one-time Florida Gator. Miller has shown he's capable of hitting 150-200 threes in a season when given enough playing time and touches and he even managed to shoot 50% from the field last year despite all of those attempts from long distance. He's eligible at both guard and forwards positions and the only thing I don't like about this guy is his hair. It needs to be cut. Or I'll cut him.
Player: Kirk Hinrich
Drafted: 11th round, 102 overall pick
Selected over: Manu Ginobili, Beno Udrih, and Russell Westbrook
Analysis: After selecting Hinrich in the 4th round last season and getting absolutely torched by the lowest scoring and assist outputs of his career, you'd think I wouldn't dare go down that road again. And while I didn't waste a 4th, or even a mid-round pick on Hinrich, I did decide to use my second to last pick on the very guard that soiled the Cager name a year ago. I didn't anticipate Derrick Rose flying out of the gates so quickly, and assumed that since rookie point guards usually take a year or two to catch their barrings, maybe Hinrich would still be in line for his usual 6 to 7 assists a game while the Bulls slowly brought Rose along. One or two weeks later, Rose is looking like the real deal and in no need of coddling while Hinrich will be sidelined for three months with a busted thumb. Some people never learn.
Others brought aboard:
Nene Hilario- He's eligible at forward and center and should be in line for more minutes with Marcus Camby now in Los Angeles. He looks to be in good shape and is averaging 14.7 points and 7.6 rebounds so far this season. Lets hope this trend continues.
Kelenna Azubuike- Since the Warriors do not have a true point guard (that Nellie trusts anyway) he is getting 35 minutes a night, averaging 15.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.18 steals a game. He is G/F eligible and only 24 years old. Nellie could run him for 40 minutes a game and that guy wouldn't tire. Run Azu run.
Jordan Farmar- He's never received the starter's minutes to wow you with great statistics and he's never been on a team that relied heavily on its point guard to create offense, but he is a damn good basketball player. There's not much he can't do and if Derek Fisher ever has to go on the shelf for an extended period of time, I will reap all the benefits, or Farmar will, depending on how you look at it.
