Wednesday, June 28, 2006
Draft #120
2006 NBA Draft Preview
Well tonight's the night. After reading up on the draft and all the rumors that are flying around the last few days, it's time to pitch in with my two cents on how the lottery should play out. This will be the first draft since the age limit was installed and that means no high school entries. There are a lot of recognizable names available to choose from, but none of the entries appear to be a can't miss, blue chip, franchise savior. And because of that, a lot of uncertainty remains in the air as general managers try to figure out who will be their pick.
Maybe I've just never paid this much attention before, but it seems like a lot of teams are trying to jockey for better positions in the draft this year. I've looked over a lot of mock drafts and with the exception of Andrea Bargnani (the consensus number one pick), the other top eight prospects could go as high as number two or as low as the nine spot with the Golden State Warriors. The confusion is all triggered by Toronto's indecisiveness at the top of the order. They want Bargnani, but they don't want to spend the number one pick on him. They'd rather trade down to the number three or four spot and select him there. They're saying they are also considering guys like Gay and Aldridge, but that's just a ploy to get the teams in the three and four spots to make a trade with them. At least everyone thinks it's a ploy, actually nobody knows what the heck is going on, and that's what makes tonight a fun draft to watch.
Granted I don't know all the teams financial needs as far as salary limits or what certain teams have in mind as far as trades go, but here is a breakdown of what the lottery teams will do tonight based on what their needs are at this time, given their current rosters.
Pick #1- Toronto Raptors
With the recent acquisition of Rasho Nesterovic, the Raptors now actually have a center. They also have two talented forwards in Chris Bosh and Charlie Villanueva, so the frontline appears to be set, for now. The biggest need is at the point, but rarely is a point guard taken with the number one overall and no point guard in this draft even comes close to warranting that consideration. I've heard Rudy Gay's name being thrown around as a possibility, but if he were to play the small forward position for the Raptors then Villanueva goes back to being a six man. I say they take the young Andrea Bargnani, let him be their sixth man this season, work him in slowly, see what he can do, and let him develop. Toronto is not in a "win now" mode, the team sucks, the city knows it, but they have the pieces in place, and all they need is some time to gel, and a point guard.
Who Bargnani reminds me of: He's a white, foreign, 7-footer who can do it all. Obviously Dirk Nowitzki comes to mind and I could see him becoming something like him, a poor man's version of him. But for now, lets go with Dino Radja.
Pick #2- Chicago Bulls
The Bulls need another big man in town to replace Eddy Curry, and Malik Allen, Michael Sweetney, and Darius Songaila just don't scream long term to me. Those in the know say the Bulls will either select Tyrus Thomas or LaMarcus Aldridge to fill in the power forward slot next to Tyson Chandler. Personally I would go with Tyrus Thomas based solely on the question, when was the last time Chicago had a high flying, athletic player to be excited about (MJ in 98)? That lineup is so boring right now, they need someone with a little flair for Pete's sake. Aldridge is about as exciting as a paper cut, so I'd go with Thomas here at number 2.
Who Thomas reminds me of: He's like Vince Carter trapped in Tim Thomas's body.
Pick #3- Charlotte Bobcats
The last few drafts have been dedicated to big men in Charlotte and now they're looking for a perimeter scorer. They seem to have their wish list narrowed down to Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay, and Adam Morrison. Coach/general manager Bernie Bickerstaff likes Gay and Morrison, but Michael Jordan (the person given control of draft decisions) likes Roy. Same situation applys to the Bobcats as it did with the Raptors, they already have a solid player at Rudy Gay's position and his name is Gerald Wallace. I'm not sure of how adaptable Morrison or Gay are to playing shooting guard, but Roy fits the mold a lot better.
Who Roy reminds me of: Plain and simple, he just looks like Ron Mercer, which would scare any GM from drafting him if they knew that the two would have identical career paths, but luckily for Roy, I see him having a better career. How much better? Not sure. If he produces at around an Alan Houston level for 8 years, then I'd say you got your money's worth.
Pick #4- Portland Trailblazers
Well everybody in the Northwest region of the country would like to see their local boy hang around the area for a few more years and I say why not? Again Aldridge is slated as a strong possibility here with Przybilla and Ratliff's future uncertain, but how could you ignore the masses? Portland has dealt with nothing but thugs ever since the Drexler/Porter/Duckworth contingency left town and it's time to start bringing in some quality people and personalities. Morrison looks like he's a syringe away from putting on a hooded sweatshirt and disappearing into the woods unannounced at the drop of a hat to go find spirits, but what are the odds of that happening? Draft the stache. I have faith that the Blazer's marketing team will be able to implement a "ride the stache" or "mustache ride" campaign that will have the city in an absolute buzz.
Who Morrison reminds me of: Wally Szczerbiak's dirty little brother who had to fight for everything he ever had. I would like to think he'll be a better pro and that all hinges on whether or not he evolves into an all around playmaker. Otherwise he's just another douche heaving jumpers.
Pick #5- Atlanta Hawks
They are set from 2-4 with Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Josh Childress. Al Harrington is a free agent so his status in the air, but regardless, your future already lies at the power forward position with Marvin Williams so what's the use of drafting that position again in fear of losing Harrington? They desperately need a point guard after losing out on Chris Paul in last year's draft and having to deal with Tyronn Lue and Royal Ivey for a full season. But the point guard crop doesn't seem to have anyone who warrants a 5th overall pick. Randy Foye of Villonova makes some sense here, but the question of whether he can be a true point guard remains since he's so highly tauted for his scoring. The Hawks appear to be leaning towards a big man to fill in the center spot and Aldridge would be a good fit here. But rumors strongly suggest that the Hawk's brass have already made a commitment to Duke big man, Shelden Williams, who was slated to go around the 10th pick as little as a few days ago. I'd say get a true, pass first, point guard via free agency and go after a big guy with this pick. LaMarcus Aldridge would be hard to pass up at the five spot in the draft, so he might as well be the selection.
Who Aldridge reminds me of: Unfortunately, Aldridge reminds me of Joe Smith. A tall lanky big man with some shooting touch, with question marks as to whether or not he can survive in the post with such a frail frame and a lack of a mean streak.
Pick #6- Minnesota Timberwolves
It's time to get Gay, Rudy style. Sure Ricky Davis is technically your small forward right now if you are Minnesota, but unlike Toronto and Charlotte, the T'wolves have the option of moving Davis over to shooting guard to free up a space for Gay. And secondly, if Ricky Davis is on your team, it's time to revaluate your current situation because Ricky is a turd and that's not an opinion. Foye has also been talked about as an option with this pick, but I would stay put with newly acquired Marcus Banks who had showed some promise after last year's midseason trade to the T'wolves.
Who Gay reminds me of: I'd say Rudy Gay is a more athletic version of Sean Elliot but with less heart. If Rudy lost a kidney I'm pretty sure he'd just say "fuck it" and hang'em up. But then again, I'd say that if he lost his favorite necklace. Actually I don't buy into the whole Rudy Gay doesn't have heart theory. I know he wasn't very assertive in this year's NCAA tourny, but I've got a feeling his laid back approach will translate very well into the NBA.
Pick #7- Boston Celtics
The Celtics seem to be in the middle of a lot of the trade rumors that are being tossed about, and have not publicly narrowed down their list of preferences. Assuming they actually keep the pick, then Foye and Shelden Williams could fill in some of the gaps in Boston's lineup. They have a young frontcourt and Williams has more experience than the two high schoolers Perkins and Jefferson combined. Plus Duke is a quality program that has produced a couple of nice big men in recent years, Elton Brand and Carlos Boozer to name a few. A point guard is the other urgent need, and UConn's Marcus Williams, Kentucky's Rajon Rondo, and Foye have all been considered. If the Hawks promise to Shelden Williams was true, then he'd be off the board and Aldridge would be the logical selection, but in this scenario, Shelden Williams is available and should be the selection.
Who Williams reminds me of: This guy:
Pick #8- Houston Rockets I've heard J.J. Redick's name being bantered around this slot, but I won't even consider Redick a lottery pick, ever, the thought of it hurts my brain. The last couple of years it's been Yao and T-Mac with an assortment of shitty over-rated power forwards, Weatherspoon, Juwan Howard, and Stromile Swift to name a few. And the remaining two positions have been filled out by an assortment of shitty, undersized, combo guards ala Bob Sura, David Wesley, Jon Barry, Charlie Ward, Mike James, Luther Head, and whatever other pile of puke the Rockets could get their hands on. This year, avoid Foye and Redick and try picking someone like Rodney Carney, someone who could run the floor with McGrady and finish a fastbreak in style. No more weiners.
Who Carney reminds me of: Desmond Mason with a better perimeter shot.
Pick #9 Golden State Warriors
Center has been their glaring weakness for years. They didn't have one when Don Nelson was trying to convince Webber to play the five back in 93 and they haven't had one since. Although Adonal Foyle seems like he's been there since Webber left town, I'm sure they've had plenty of other equally crappy centers. The Warriors have adequate starters at positions 1-4, but their pick is dependant on whether or not upper management decides to get rid of some of those pieces since the Davis, Dunleavy, Murphy, and Richardson combination doesn't appear to be meshing very well. If they do have their heart set on a center, then Patrick O'Bryant, Hilton Armstrong, and Mouhamed Saer Sene are the top centers on the board. O'Bryant seems to be like a Antonio McDyess in that he suddenly has come out of nowhere after a solid NCAA tourny appearance and now he all of a sudden has so much value. I'm a huge Hilton Armstrong fan, so I'd advice selecting him.
Who Armstrong reminds me of: Hilton doesn't remind me of too many players. He's got great leaping ability, he's long and can block shots, he just seems very disruptive on the defensive end. I don't know how much offensive talent he possesses, but it has to be more than Adonal Foyle, or at least it will be.
Pick #10- Seattle Sonics
With Ray Allen and Luke Ridnour in the backcourt and Rashard Lewis at the three, the Sonics appear to be looking for another big body to join the heap of unproven talent in the frontcourt. Most of the unproven talent lies at the center position with seven-footers Robert Swift and Johan Petro so a rookie center is the least of their needs. The next best possible power forward option is N.C. State's Cedric Simmons so he would seem like the logical choice here, but I guess it would depend on whether the Sonics bring back Chris Wilcox. Then again, backup forward Nick Collison can't seem to stay healthy very often, so Simmons is the pick.
Pick #11- Orlando Magic
They're looking for a taller scoring option to play along side Jamer Nelson in the backcourt. May I suggest Ronnie Brewer of Arkansas. Whatever you do, don't pick Redick. (Shawn Respert's white brother)
Pick #12- New Orleans Hornets
P.J. Brown is older than dirt and Jamaal Magloire needs to be replaced on the frontline after leaving before last season via trade. Might as well give that Patrick O'Bryant a try. I'm pretty sure he doesn't run like the tin man, so he has to be an upgrade.
Pick #13- Philadelphia 76ers
Maurice Cheeks, just roll the ball out there at practice and tell them boys to run, run, run because with Iverson and Foye in the same backcourt, speed is your ally. Add Iguodala into the mix, and you've got a fun team to watch in Philly. That's what I'd do, but with Dalembert on the outs and Webber not getting any younger, Philly might go the big route as well. If they do, then Shawne Williams of Memphis or FSU's Alexander Johnson would be the best options at that position, but they could probably be obtained with a later first round pick. I'd go with Randy Foye, after all, he's a Villanova guy.
Pick #14- Utah Jazz
The frontline is packed with Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, and Mehmet Okur. Deron Williams is the new point guard in town so that leaves shooting guard and center as their biggest needs. I'd go center because Redick isn't an option as stated earlier. Mouhamed Saer Sene can grab the rim standing up, he got Karl Malone's approval in workouts, and ain't no way he could be much worse than Greg Ostertag. I'd go with the big guy here and look for Mike Gansey in round two.
Pick #39- Milwaukee Bucks
I've heard Iowa State point guard Will Blalock's name thrown about and Boston College forward Craig Smith as well. I like both of these guys. Whoever the Bucks can bring in here to bust some chops and give this team an edge, is what I'm looking for. The Bucks play most of their games half asleep and they need to develop an attitude. This is the main reason I hate coach Stotts. He's as exciting as Scotch tape. I'm done writing now. I'm going to grab some Qdoba and belly up to the tube for some exciting offseason NBA action, it's fantastic!
