Friday, December 08, 2006
Draft #171
A Fantasy Football Nightmare
For the better part of this season my fantasy football team had been performing at a very high level, and at one point I believe my team was 7-2 and I was tied for the league's best record. My starting lineup consisted of Donovan McNabb, Ronnie Brown, Willie Parker, Julius Jones, Javon Walker, Marques Colston, Ben Watson, and Ryan Longwell. During this high point of the season ESPN.com's Eric Karabell (a fantasy sports guru) had McNabb, Parker, and Colston all ranked in his weekly top 12 list of the game's best fantasy players, and Ronnie Brown was one of a handful of players that he noted as being close to top 12 status. My team was running on all cylinders, Walker appeared to be completely healthy after an ACL tear last season, McNabb was thriving even without a marquee receiver, Fast Willie Parker was coming into his own with Jerome Bettis out of town, and Marques Colston was doing his best Terrell Owens impression circa 2002.And then a few weeks ago the shit officially hit the fan when McNabb suffered a season ending knee injury, leaving me without one of the top 3 players in all of fantasy football. And from that point on, my team has been taking a complete nosedive into the lonely realm of fantasy football mediocrity. Colston sprained his ankle the same week McNabb injured his knee and has been sidelined ever since. Ronnie Brown broke his hand on Thanksgiving Day and hasn't played since. Julius Jones has been slowly but surely losing his job to Marion Barber and is all but worthless at this point. Javon Walker now has a rookie quarterback throwing to him and whatever chemistry he had with Plummer is now out the window and it's anybody's guess as to what his numbers will be like the rest of the way.
After a 7-2 start, my team is limping into the playoffs with a 7-6 record. Sure I made the playoffs and not every team in the league can boast that claim, but my outlook is looking pretty bleak right about now. I still have Parker, Walker, Watson, and Longwell in the starting lineup but the rest is a complete toss up. I had to pick up Ronnie Brown's backup Sammy Morris and plug him into the starting lineup, and when Sammy freaking Morris is starting for your fantasy football team you know you've reached new heights of desperation. Jamal Lewis, who's been riding pine for my team all year long, will be getting the nod over Julius Jones and I can only pray that Lewis and his bah-donkidonk accidentally fall ass backwards into the endzone at least once since rushing for more than 65 yards is something Lewis doesn't do anymore. Colston is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys so I have no idea what to expect from him even if he decides to play.
And now to the crux of this entry. With McNabb out, I now had the daunting task of figuring out who would be my starting quarterback for the opening round of the playoffs. Ben Roethlisberger has been my go-to backup QB since McNabb's departure and he has been serviceable ever since he was thrown into the starting lineup. Jeff Garcia was the only other option I had at quarterback and his 3 touchdown performance against Carolina the previous week had now made him an option worth considering.
Garcia or Roethlisberger?
Who should I start?
If I survive this opening round of the playoffs I'm guaranteed at least a shot at a money game in the later rounds, so this decision is huge. And here's the thought process I went through to make the decision.
-Both Garcia and Roethlisberger were playing shitty teams this week, the Redskins and Browns respectively, so matchups didn't play much of a factor in the decision.
-Big Ben played on Thursday night and I historically do not enjoy having guys on my team play that early in the week because they usually end up playing poorly and then I'm heading into Sunday down a player or two while my oppenent has all 8 guys on his team yet to play. I don't enjoy the psychological uphill climb.
-If my season were to have ended because Garcia shit the bed against Washington, I would never have forgiven myself. I am NOT a Jeff Garcia fan at all. But.....I like Andy Reid and the Eagles offense and Garcia did throw those 3 touchdowns on Monday so maybe I should....
-I mean afterall, Ben (i've grown physically tired of writing Roethlisberger) leads the league in interceptions thrown this season, he's recently had a concussion, he's looking very statuesque lately ala Drew Bledsoe and his offensive line is giving up a lot of sacks lately. If the Steelers have trouble scoring points Thursday night against the Browns, then having both Willy and Ben in my lineup would be a killer going into Sunday.
-Garcia does talk with a lisp, but my goodness, he did throw for over 300 yards on Monday Night against Carolina and did I mention he threw 3 TD passes?
-Hines Ward was declared inactive for the week and Ben's main targets include Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes. Yikes, that doesn't sound very appetizing.
-Garcia dumping off a couple of TD passes to Bryant Westbrook? Now that seems like a possibility.
By days end I had made my decision. I'm going to start Ben Roethlisberger, and that's that. I read Karabell's column and he predicted a 200 yard, 2 TD pass night from Ben and that's something I could live with. Once the workday completed, I walked straight down to the computer island, and set my lineup with confidence.
But....just as I completed submitting the lineup I noticed a little blurb on the website about how the weather in Pittsburgh was going to be terrible. The forecast that evening was calling for 14-18 mph winds with gusts as high as 32 mph. The temperature was to be 25 degrees at gametime and dipping below 20 degrees by night's end with precipitation likely to be in the mix. So I immediately flash to my first ever Packer game in which the Packers beat the Drew Bledsoe led Buffalo Bills in a December matchup that was played in sub 20 degree weather. I recalled the final score of that game being 10-3 or 10-7 and how impossible it was to throw the ball in those conditions.
So now I'm not sure if Big Ben should be my choice and I've got a little over two hours to figure out if I want to start him or go with option B. Luckily I have the NFL Network Channel at my apartment so I'd be able to investigate the weather conditions a bit before settling on a decision. The pregame show does little to convince me that Roethlisberger should remain in my starting lineup. Hines Field looks desolate, the crowd is said to be slow in arriving to the game because of the dangerous road conditions. The field itself looks like crap because it was overused lately thanks in part to local high school state championship games and even by the Pittsburgh Panthers football team. The sideline reporter starts rambling about how he talked to Roethlisberger himself and he told him that "The ball was traveling heavy" and that "Ben's passes were being lifted off path due to the wind during warmups."
And that's when the red flags in my head started waiving feverishly.
Throughout that very day I was flirting with the possibility of signing rookie quarterback Vince Young and plugging him into my lineup. A move that bold would surely get the league talking. It's the kind of move the league would be talking about for years to come. It would be reminiscent of when the Packers signed Andre Rison to get them over the hump in 96'. And after witnessing the weather conditions in Pittsburgh this pipe dream scenario starting making more sense. I slowly started talking myself into the idea with each passing second.-My team is in utter shambles right now, and who better to spark some excitement than one of the league's most young and promising talents.
-He's beaten the Giants and the Colts in back-to-back weeks, he's really on a roll.
-He's playing the Texans this week? The Texans blow. He's sure to carve them apart. Right?
-Plus the game is in Texas so this would be his homecoming and Vince always comes through in the spotlight.
-Fellow rookie Reggie Bush just had his breakout game last week with 4 TD's. You don't think Vince noticed that? He's had Bush envy ever since the Heisman trophy ceremony their last year of college.
-Young has over 300 yards rushing this season and he hasn't even played the whole year, he's got to be good for 1 rushing TD and even one passing TD? Right?
-(Me glancing at the TV) And you know for damn sure there ain't going to be any snow in Texas.
So with 10 minutes before kickoff, the knee jerk reaction was in full affect. I signed Young, benched Roethlisberger and the only thing left was the crying. What happens next you ask? Big Ben gets creamed on his first pass attempt and is rushed to the hospital making me look like a genius for not starting him? I wish. Rather, Ben proceeds to throw a 49 yard TD pass to Nate Washington with three minutes remaining in the first quarter, completely pissing on the laundry list of reasons I had for not starting him. I swear he looked right into the camera after that pass and he told me to "suck it".
The rest of the game was pure agony. The Browns couldn't defend a damn thing, not the run, not the pass, nothing. My only saving grace was that the Steelers had trouble finishing a good share of their drives because of a few arrant Roethlisberger passes. He could have easily posted 3 or 4 TD's if he connects on some of those passes in the redzone. The other saving grace was that Willie Parker ended the game with 223 yards rushing and a score. But as mammoth as Parker's performance was for my fantasy team, it generated the same amount of fantasy points as Ben's 225 yards passing, 2 TD's and zero interceptions. I've never been closer to vomitting without the aid of overeating or drinking in my entire life. I couldn't have asked for more than what Roethlisberger delieverd on Thursday night, and I flushed it all away.
Willie and Ben combined for 36 points which is one less than what my entire team scored in the final week of the regular season. Am I grossly overreacting to this whole quarterbacking decision? Absolutely. Is it still mathematically possible for my team to advance to the 2nd round? Sure it is. Is there any chance Vince Young will post as many points as Roethlisberger this Sunday? Not a snowball's chance in hell. Am I immediately regretting this decision? You bet. Am I the dumbest person in the history of the universe? Quite possibly. Do I realize the rest of my team could put up massive numbers this weekend or vice versa, thus making the quarterback decision irrelevant? I never really thought about it that way. At this point I'm positively convinced that a decision this stupid could only have painstaking consequences.
I signed Young with the expectation that he'd throw for 120 yards, rush for 45 yards, and possibly score once via the air and the ground, with probably 1 or 2 interceptions. That would give him anywhere from 14-18 points. Is that statline totally out of the realm of possibility? Not at all. I admit I'm expecting a lot out of a rookie, but I just had a feeling. And in the end, I guess I can go to bed soundly at night once it's all said and done knowing I was bold enough to act on the hunch. Whether it works out or not is anybody's guess but I know one thing is for certain......... Gambling on football is fun, and lots of it.
# posted by hucklebuck @ 7:10 AM 
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